Agara Manifesto

September 16, 1992: George Soros shorts $10 billion against the British pound. The trade is based on publicly available information: the pound is overvalued, the Bank of England's interest rate policies are unsustainable. One day later: $1 billion profit. His edge wasn't secret information. It was access—to a prime broker, to capital, to the infrastructure that lets you act on what you know.

Today: Millions of people worldwide analyze markets, study trends, and make accurate predictions. They publish research. They write analysis. They share insights. They cannot trade on them.

Traditional financial markets have high friction, high minimums, and geographic restrictions. It is a global pattern.

An economics professor in Lagos publishes research on African geopolitics. She analyzes Nigerian elections, Zambian copper supply, Kenyan monetary policy. Her work appears in Foreign Affairs and academic journals. Institutional investors read every word. Hedge funds use her analysis to position trades. They profit from her insights.

To trade her own insights, she would need:

• Access to international brokers who allow her to take positions across Africa
• Cross-border bank accounts
• Capital minimums in a global currency like USD
• Ability to wire funds internationally which is restricted, expensive and slow

There's no platform where she can simply take a position on "Nigerian election outcome" or "copper prices will spike in Q3" in naira or stablecoins, in minutes, with $50, in her own language if needed, without cross-border KYC or broker approvals.

The infrastructure doesn't exist. The hedge funds reading her work convert it into derivatives trades through prime brokers. She has no equivalent tools.

She gets citations. While the hedge funds get the returns. She can't turn her knowledge into capital.

An analyst in Bengaluru reads the same AI research papers as an analyst in NYC. He sees the same opportunity as his counterpart: energy infrastructure for AI, rare earth supply chains, US chip manufacturers. He loses 2 to 3 percent on FX, waits days for transfers, faces minimum balances and tax friction. The opportunity passes.

A rice farmer in Indonesia knows yields, weather patterns, and harvest timing better than any analyst in Jakarta. He lives rice prices, the single variable that determines if his family eats. He should be able to hedge when prices crash. He should profit when they spike. He cannot. Trading rice futures requires broker accounts, minimum balances exceeding his net worth, derivatives knowledge, and navigating complex trading terminals.

Traders in Chicago and Singapore bet on Indonesian rice using commodity models. They profit from the volatility. He lives the volatility. He gets nothing.

Today, your ability to monetize your beliefs depends on:

• Geography. Robinhood serves two countries. Kalshi serves one. Traditional brokers cherry-pick regions. Want to trade Brazilian elections from Nigeria? Indian markets from the Philippines? Impossible.
• Capital. Accredited investor rules lock out 99% of the world. Futures require thousands in margin. And even if you qualify in one country, you still can't access markets in others.
• Infrastructure. Cross-border accounts require weeks of documentation. Wire transfers take days and cost 3–5%. Converting currencies loses another 2–3%. You're down before you start
• Complexity. Margin calls. Settlement mechanisms. Contract specifications. During volatility, requirements spike and liquidate you even when you're right.

This system is not broken. It is working as designed. It was designed to keep people out.

Robinhood democratized access to finance for Americans.

Agara gives the power to act to everyone else.

Agara is a local first prediction venue for rest of the world where AI creates and resolves markets and users price reality. Built on defi rails

No brokers controlling access. No borders. Trade any market, in any language, with any amount funded locally or with stabecoins.

This wasn't possible five years ago. Today, the core infrastructure has been built:

• Blockchains and stablecoins solved payments: $3 trillion in monthly volume, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined. Settlements are trustless.
• Regulatory clarity emerged: GENIUS Act (July 2025), Kalshi's CFTC approval, category legitimacy.
• AI: AI agents continuously scans trusted sources to auto create, translate, localize markets & resolve them with quality gates.
• Proven category, but not global yet: Polymarket & Kalshi are on track to do a combined $100B+ annualized volume. They have validated that there's massive demand for prediction markets. But they have not scaled beyond the US. Markets beyond US interests are missing. Resolution trust is low. Liquidity is thin and fragmented. They have not been able to scale market creation to the long tail.

For centuries, access to financial markets required capital and connections.

Agara changes this.

Prediction markets are the superset of all markets. If something can be predicted, it can be priced. If it can be priced, it can be traded. Onchain rails remove friction so ideas, events, earnings, elections, and even research threads become assets. The market expands to absorb every other market.

Why this is a giant opportunity:

• Everyone consumes information and believes they have an edge. Agara lets them turn that edge into positions and PnL.
• New primitives unlock real use cases at consumer speed: insure against black swans, hedge without borrowing or liquidation, trade stock earnings onchain with no broker, use crypto options without touching greeks.
• Liquidity follows attention. Markets become the most accurate real-time sentiment and news feed, often pricing outcomes before headlines.
• Curiosity is rewarded. Niche expertise and weird obsessions monetize directly.
• Institutions gain clean, composable signals and hedges from the same venue the crowd uses.

At maturity, this eclipses any single asset class because the investable surface is everything people care about. Sports, politics, tech, culture, science, macro. All on one ledger. All tradable.

Agara is the financial superapp of the future. Own anything. Price anything. Trade anytime. All opinions become tradable.

The infrastructure now exists to give billions of people the same tool that made Soros $1 billion: the ability to act on what you know.

Agara: Where knowledge becomes capital.

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